UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC

Trucking & Courier Services (No Air)
Stock Price
$108.29
$-1.02 (-0.93%)
Jun 26, 2026
Debt to Equity
144.9%
ROE
34.3%
PE Ratio
15.13
EPS (Diluted)
$6.56

United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) Fundamental Analysis

United Parcel Service (UPS) — Executive Summary

United Parcel Service, Inc. is a global package‑delivery and logistics operator with an asset‑heavy network and historically high return on equity, combining steady cash generation with recent pressure on top‑line momentum.

Fundamental Strengths

Several fundamentals remain competitive: five‑year diluted EPS compounded at roughly 32.92% (5‑year EPS CAGR 0.3292), recent ROE sits in the mid‑30% range (most recent ROE ~34.3%), and gross margin is unusually high at about 63.7%, reflecting pricing power in core services. The company’s interest coverage is comfortably above conventional stress levels (interest coverage ≈ 7.74x), and operating cash flow has consistently exceeded reported net income — TTM operating cash flow of $8.45B versus TTM net income of $5.57B — which supports earnings quality and liquidity (Earnings Quality Analysis, Return on Equity (ROE)).

Areas of Weakness

At the same time, there are clear areas of weakness. Shorter‑term earnings and revenue momentum have softened: one‑year diluted EPS growth is down about 3.6% and one‑year revenue‑per‑share growth is down roughly 2.6%, with revenue per share drifting from $107.14 (2024‑12‑31) to $104.31 (2025‑12‑31). Operating cash flow has also moderated from a recent peak of $10.12B (2024‑12‑31) to 8.45B TTM, and investing cash outflows have expanded (latest TTM investing cash flow ≈ -$4.74B), pressuring free cash flow dynamics while financing outflows remain sizeable (TTM financing ≈ -$4.14B) (Strategic Capital Allocation, Revenue & Net Income, EPS Diluted & Revenue per Share).

Key Metrics to Monitor

Key metrics to monitor going forward include whether operating cash flow stays above net income (TTM OCF $8.45B vs NI $5.57B), trends in revenue per share (most recent $104.31) and diluted EPS (most recent $6.56), movement in operating and net margins (latest operating margin 8.9%, net margin ~6.3%), changes in ROE trajectory, and capital deployment including investing outlays and financing flows; the company’s trailing P/E has also moved to about 15.1x and is worth watching for shifts in market valuation context (Profit Margin Trends, Revenue & EPS Growth, Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio Trend).

Revenue and Growth

Revenue Trend

Revenue & Net Income

The foundation of business quality and long-term value creation

Revenue & Net Income Growth

UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC's revenue in 2025 showed a stable mid‑year run near $21.2B–$21.6B (Q1–Q3) followed by an increase to $24.48B in the quarter ending 2025‑12‑31. Net income rose steadily through 2025, from $1.19B in Q1 to $1.79B in Q4, indicating quarter‑over‑quarter improvement in the most recent year. Year‑over‑year, Q4 2025 revenue is slightly below Q4 2024's $25.30B while net income in Q4 2025 is modestly above Q4 2024's $1.72B.

Looking further back, there are clear historical inflection points: large net income peaks in early 2021 (e.g., $4.79B in 2021‑03‑31 and multiple quarters above $3B in late 2021/2022) and an isolated net loss of –$3.35B in 2020‑12‑31. The most recent quarterly revenue was $24.48B and the most recent quarterly net income was $1.79B.

Why Growth Matters

Consistent revenue and earnings growth are the lifeblood of successful long-term investments. Companies that can grow their top line (revenue) and bottom line (net income) over many years demonstrate they have products or services customers value and are willing to pay for repeatedly.

Revenue Growth shows whether the company is expanding its market reach, gaining market share, or successfully launching new products.Net Income Growth demonstrates the company can convert that revenue into actual profits while managing costs effectively.

Look for steady, sustainable growth rather than erratic spikes. The best businesses compound earnings year after year, creating tremendous value for shareholders over time. Companies that can grow earnings faster than revenue are improving their profitability—a sign of operational excellence and competitive strength.

UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC (UPS) quarterly revenue and net income trend analysis showing historical financial performance over multiple years. Interactive chart displaying revenue growth, net income trends, and profitability patterns for UPS stock with quarterly and annual data points.

Revenue & Net Income Trend

Revenue
Net Income

EPS Diluted & Revenue per Share

Per-share earnings and revenue — the shareholder's view of growth

Why Per-Share Metrics Matter

Total revenue and net income can grow simply because a company issues more shares or makes acquisitions. Per-share metrics cut through that noise — they show how much value each single share of stock is generating, which is what actually matters to shareholders.

Revenue per Share (split-adjusted) tells you how much revenue the business generates for every share outstanding. Growing revenue per share means the company is either expanding the business or shrinking the share count — both shareholder-friendly signals.EPS Diluted (split-adjusted) captures bottom-line earnings per share after accounting for all dilutive instruments such as stock options and convertible debt.

The most powerful signal is when both lines rise together over many years. If revenue per share grows but EPS lags, margins are being squeezed. If EPS grows faster than revenue per share, the company is becoming more profitable — a hallmark of businesses with durable competitive advantages. Watch for share buybacks, which can mechanically lift EPS even if total earnings are flat.

UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC (UPS) EPS diluted and revenue per share trend showing historical per-share earnings and revenue performance over time.

EPS Diluted & Revenue per Share

Revenue Per Share
Earnings Per Share (Diluted)

Revenue & EPS Growth

Year-over-year growth rates for revenue and earnings per share

Reading the Growth Rate Chart

This chart converts the absolute per-share figures into year-over-year percentage changes, making it easy to see whether growth is accelerating, decelerating, or reverting to trend — regardless of the company's absolute size.

Revenue per Share Growth (1-year, split-adjusted) measures how quickly the top line is expanding on a per-share basis. Sustained positive growth signals that the company continues to win customers and grow its addressable market.EPS Diluted Growth (1-year, split-adjusted) measures how quickly earnings are compounding for each shareholder. When EPS growth consistently outpaces revenue growth, operating leverage and margin expansion are at work.

Look for consistency, not just magnitude. A company that reliably grows EPS 10–15% per year is far more valuable than one that alternates between 50% spikes and deep contractions. Negative EPS growth during a period of positive revenue growth is a red flag — costs are rising faster than sales. Quarters where both lines converge near zero or go negative deserve close scrutiny.

UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC (UPS) year-over-year revenue per share and EPS diluted growth rate trend analysis showing historical growth performance.

Revenue & EPS Growth

Avg:
Revenue Per Share year-on-year growth rate
Diluted EPS year-on-year growth rate
10Y rolling avg (dashed)

Revenue Analysis

Revenue Waterfall Analysis

How revenue converts to net income for the most recent annual period

UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC (UPS) revenue waterfall chart showing the breakdown from total revenue to net income. Displays cost of goods sold, operating expenses, selling and administrative costs, research and development expenses, tax expenses, and final net income for UPS. Annual financial statement waterfall analysis showing profit margin components and expense structure.

Over the period Jan 2025 to Dec 2025, United Parcel Service Inc converts approximately 64¢ of every revenue dollar into gross profit (gross margin: 63.7%).After accounting for operating expenses and taxes and expenses, the company retains 6.3% as net profit margin, resulting in $5.57B in net earnings.

Starting Revenue
Expenses
Other Items
Net Income

Period Information

Report Type: Annual (10-K)

Period: Jan 2025 to Dec 2025

Revenue Sources

Revenue composition by disclosure category for the latest period

Revenue Streams

  • U.S. Domestic Package Operations (reported segment listed in the filing)
  • International Package Operations (reported segment listed in the filing)
  • Supply Chain Solutions "SCS" Operations (reported segment listed in the filing)

Geographic Reach

  • United States (U.S. Domestic)
  • International (International Package Operations)
Period: Jan 2025 to Dec 2025
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Profitability

Profit Margins

Earnings Quality

Earnings Quality Analysis

Comparing reported earnings to actual cash generation

Earnings Quality Analysis — Net Income vs Operating Cash Flow (TTM)

In the most recent year UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC's trailing twelve-month operating cash flow has moved lower from $10.12B at 2024-12-31 to $8.45B at 2025-12-31, with a mid-year trough of $7.48B at 2025-06-30 and a partial rebound to $8.46B at 2025-09-30. Over the same recent quarters, trailing twelve-month net income has been relatively stable in a narrow range around $5.5–$5.9B (peaking at $5.86B on 2025-03-31 and most recently $5.57B). Weighting the latest quarters more heavily, operating cash flow remains higher than net income in each recent TTM period.

Looking further back, both metrics were materially higher in 2021–2022 ($14B–$15B range for operating cash flow and near $11B–$13B for net income) before the multi-year decline in cash flow beginning in 2022. The gap between operating cash flow and net income has narrowed since late 2024 but persists: at 2025-12-31, operating cash flow exceeds net income by $2.88B. The most recent trailing twelve-month *Operating Cash Flow* was $8.45B and the most recent *Trailing Twelve-Month Net Income* was $5.57B.

The Earnings vs. Cash Flow Gap

Reported earnings (Net Income) doesn't always reflect actual cash generation. Companies use accrual accounting, which recognizes revenue when earned and expenses when incurred—not when cash actually changes hands. This creates timing differences and opportunities for accounting discretion that can mask underlying business health.

Net Income (the "earnings" number) can be influenced by non-cash items like depreciation, stock-based compensation, and changes in accounting estimates.Operating Cash Flow, however, shows the actual cash the business generates from its core operations—a harder number to manipulate.

Net Income vs Operating Cash Flow

Trailing Twelve Months

Net Income (Trailing Twelve Months)
Operating Cash Flow (Trailing Twelve Months)

What to Look For

  • Consistent Alignment: High-quality earnings show operating cash flow tracking closely with or exceeding net income over time. This indicates the company is actually collecting cash from its reported profits.
  • Warning Sign - Divergence: If net income consistently exceeds cash flow, the company may be reporting earnings that aren't translating to cash. This could indicate aggressive revenue recognition, growing receivables that may not be collected, or inventory building up.
  • Positive Sign - Cash Exceeds Earnings: When cash flow exceeds net income, it often reflects conservative accounting (like accelerated depreciation) or strong working capital management. This is generally a sign of high earnings quality.
  • Quarterly Volatility is Normal: Some variation is expected due to timing of collections, seasonal factors, and one-time items. Focus on the trend over multiple quarters rather than any single period.

Key Insight: Companies with durable competitive advantages typically show operating cash flow that meets or exceeds net income over time, demonstrating they convert accounting profits into actual cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested in the business.

Return on Equity

Return on Equity (ROE)

Measuring management's efficiency at generating profits from shareholder capital

Return on Equity (ROE) Analysis — UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC (UPS)

UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC's ROE shows large historical volatility with extreme peaks in the mid-2010s (for example 847.2% at 2016-12-31 and several quarters above 200%) and another cluster of very high readings through 2019–2020 (e.g., 204.4% at 2020-12-31). After those peaks the series moved materially lower: ROE declined through 2021–2022 from the very high levels and by mid-2023 had come down into a lower band relative to prior peaks.

Over the most recent quarters the company’s ROE has been in a narrower 30–38% range. The series hit 35.0% (2024-03-31) then a recent trough of 30.9% (2024-06-30) before recovering to 37.4% (2025-03-31) and settling around the mid-30s thereafter (36.4% 2025-06-30; 34.8% 2025-09-30; 34.3% 2025-12-31). The most recent ROE observed was 34.3%.

The Gold Standard of Profitability

Return on Equity (ROE) is a powerful measure of how effectively a company's management is using the money shareholders have invested. Calculated by dividing Net Income by Shareholders' Equity, it reveals how much profit is generated for every dollar of equity capital.

A consistently high ROE (typically above 15-20%) is often the signature of a "quality" business with a durable competitive advantage. It indicates that the company can generate high returns on its own capital, which it can then reinvest at these high rates to compound value over time.

What to Look For:

  • Consistency: Look for an ROE that is stable or rising over time. Erratic ROE can signal cyclicality or inconsistent management.
  • Quality vs. Leverage: While a high ROE is generally positive, it can sometimes be artificially inflated by high debt (leverage). Always cross-reference ROE with the company's Debt-to-Equity ratio to ensure the profitability is coming from operational excellence rather than excessive borrowing.
  • Comparison: ROE is most meaningful when compared against industry peers or the company's own historical average.
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC (UPS) Return on Equity (ROE) historical trend analysis. Quarterly chart showing the company's return on equity over time, reflecting management's efficiency in using shareholder capital.

Return on Equity Trend

Avg:
Return on Equity
10Y rolling avg (dashed)

Capital Allocation & Cash Flow

Capital Strategy

Strategic Capital Allocation

How the company generates and deploys its cash

Strategic Capital Allocation — Cash Flow Allocation Trend (TTM)

UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC's trailing twelve-month operating cash flow has moved down from a peak around $10.12B at 2024-12-31 to $9.12B at 2025-03-31 and hit a low of $7.48B at 2025-06-30 before rebounding modestly to about $8.45B through 2025-12-31. The recent few quarters show a stabilization in operating cash in the mid-$8B range after the mid-2025 dip.

Investing cash flow has been negative throughout the period, shifting from an unusually small outflow of -$217.0M at 2024-12-31 to larger outflows in 2025 (roughly -$3.14B to -$3.79B) and increasing to -$4.74B by 2025-12-31. Financing cash outflows moderated from -$6.85B at 2024-12-31 to around -$3.79B at 2025-09-30 before edging to -$4.14B in the latest twelve-month reading.

The most recent trailing twelve-month values are: Operating Cash Flow $8.45B, Investing Cash Flow $-4.74B, Financing Cash Flow $-4.14B.

Understanding Company Strategy

Capital allocation refers to how management decides to spend and invest the company's cash. Analyzing the three primary categories of cash flow reveals a company's true operational strategy:

  • Operating Cash Flow: The engine of the business. This shows how much cash is generated from core operations. Sustainable businesses should ideally fund their growth and shareholder returns primarily from this source.
  • Investing Cash Flow: The future of the business. This includes spending on new equipment, R&D, and acquisitions. Consistent negative values are normal for growing companies as they reinvest in their future.
  • Financing Cash Flow: The funding of the business. This reflects capital raising (issuing stock or debt) versus returning capital to shareholders (dividends and buybacks) or repaying debt.

What to look for: Is the company bootstrapping (funding growth solely from operating cash)? Are they borrowing to fund aggressive expansion or dividends? Or are they capital raising by issuing new shares, potentially diluting your ownership? A healthy, mature company typically generates strong operating cash, moderately invests in growth, and returns the surplus to shareholders through financing activities.

UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC (UPS) cash flow allocation analysis. Quarterly chart displaying the three pillars of cash flow: net cash from operating activities, investing activities, and financing activities, providing insight into the company's capital allocation strategy.

Cash Flow Allocation Trend

Trailing Twelve Months

Operating CF (TTM)
Investing CF (TTM)
Financing CF (TTM)

Balance Sheet

Book Value per Share

Book Value per Share

Net assets attributable to each share — the accounting floor of intrinsic value

Why Book Value per Share Matters

Book value per share is the net worth of the company — total assets minus total liabilities — divided by shares outstanding (split-adjusted). It represents the theoretical liquidation value per share if every asset were sold and every liability repaid at balance-sheet carrying values. It is the accounting foundation upon which much of equity valuation is built.

A steadily rising book value per share is one of the most reliable signals of compounding wealth creation. It means the company is retaining earnings and building net worth faster than it is returning capital or eroding it. Warren Buffett famously tracked Berkshire Hathaway's book value per share for decades as his primary measure of intrinsic value growth.

Context is essential. Asset-heavy businesses (banks, manufacturers, utilities) should be judged by book value more directly than asset-light businesses (software, consumer brands), where intangible assets like intellectual property and customer loyalty may far exceed their balance-sheet carrying values. A company trading at a large premium to book value is not necessarily overvalued — it may simply possess competitive advantages that accounting rules do not capture. Conversely, a declining book value per share — especially over multiple years — is a serious warning sign of capital destruction.

UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC (UPS) book value per share trend showing historical net asset value per share over time, split-adjusted.

Book Value per Share

Book Value Per Share

Debt to Equity

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

How much of the company is financed by debt versus shareholders' equity

Reading the Debt-to-Equity Ratio

The debt-to-equity (D/E) ratio compares total financial debt to shareholders' equity. A ratio of 1.0 means the company has borrowed one dollar for every dollar of equity; a ratio of 2.0 means it has borrowed twice as much as it owns. Financial leverage amplifies both returns and risk: in good times, debt turbocharges equity returns; in bad times, it accelerates losses and can threaten solvency.

Trends matter more than a single number. A rising D/E ratio can mean the company is taking on debt to fund growth — potentially value-creating if returns exceed the cost of capital. But it can also mean equity is being eroded through losses or that the business is borrowing simply to sustain operations. A falling D/E ratio generally reflects strengthening financial health: earnings are being retained, debt maturities are being paid down, or both.

Industry norms vary enormously. Capital-intensive sectors (utilities, real estate, financials) routinely carry high D/E ratios that would be alarming in, say, a technology company. Always compare against sector peers. As a rough rule of thumb, a D/E above 2× in a cyclical business warrants careful scrutiny of interest coverage and refinancing risk.

UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC (UPS) debt-to-equity ratio trend showing the historical balance between financial leverage and shareholders' equity.

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

Current Ratio

Current Ratio

Short-term liquidity — can the company cover its near-term obligations?

Liquidity: Can the Business Pay Its Bills?

The current ratio is calculated as current assets divided by current liabilities. A ratio of 1.5 means the company has $1.50 of short-term assets — cash, receivables, inventory — for every $1.00 of obligations due within the next twelve months. It is the most direct measure of near-term financial resilience: can the business meet its obligations without needing to raise new capital or sell long-term assets at a discount?

A ratio above 1.0 is generally healthy, meaning current assets exceed current liabilities. A ratio consistently above 2.0 may indicate the company is holding excess cash or inventory that could be deployed more productively. A ratio below 1.0 is a warning sign — the company is relying on future cash generation or external financing to cover its near-term obligations, which is manageable in normal conditions but dangerous during a downturn.

Trends and context matter.A declining current ratio isn't always alarming — highly efficient businesses (e.g., large retailers with reliable daily cash flows) often run leaner balance sheets intentionally. Conversely, a rapidly rising current ratio can signal slowing sales causing inventory to build, or customers taking longer to pay. Always compare the trend against industry peers and cross-reference with the cash flow statement to assess whether the business is genuinely liquid or just holding non-cash current assets.

UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC (UPS) current ratio trend showing the ratio of current assets to current liabilities over time, a measure of short-term liquidity.

Current Ratio

Current Ratio

Valuation

PE Ratio

Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio Trend

How much the market is paying for each dollar of company earnings

Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio

UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC's trailing twelve‑month price-to-earnings ratio has moved lower over the past year, falling from 22.0x at 2024-06 to 18.5x at 2024-12 and continuing down through 16.0x (2025-03) and 15.0x (2025-06) to a trough of 12.9x in 2025-09. The series shows a modest rebound in the most recent quarter, rising to 15.1x at 2025-12 after that September low.

The long-term series includes several pronounced historical spikes (for example 106.6x at 2020-12 and elevated readings in 2012–2013), but the most recent two years have been well below those peaks and exhibit a downward trend followed by the small uptick in the latest quarter. The most recent Price-to-Earnings ratio was 15.1x.

What Is the PE Ratio?

The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is one of the most widely used valuation metrics in investing. It divides the current stock price by the company's earnings per share (EPS), revealing how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings. A high PE can signal that the market expects strong future growth, while a low PE may suggest undervaluation—or reflect genuine concerns about the company's prospects.

Context matters:PE ratios vary significantly across industries. High-growth technology companies routinely trade at PE ratios above 30x or 40x, while mature, low-growth sectors like utilities or financials often trade closer to 10–15x. Always compare a company's PE to its own history and its industry peers, not just an absolute number.

What to Look For:

  • Expanding PE (Re-rating):If the PE is rising while earnings are also growing, the market is assigning increasing confidence in the company's future. If PE rises while earnings stagnate, it may signal speculative excess.
  • Contracting PE (De-rating): A falling PE can indicate the market is losing confidence in growth prospects. If earnings grow but the PE shrinks, total returns may be muted.
  • Negative PE: When a company is loss-making, the PE ratio is negative or undefined. In these cases, investors typically use other metrics such as Price-to-Sales (P/S) or EV/EBITDA.
  • Spikes and Troughs: Sudden PE spikes often occur when earnings temporarily collapse (making the divisor small) rather than when the stock price surges. Context is key.

Key Insight:The PE ratio is a snapshot of market sentiment and expectations. Tracking it over time alongside earnings trends reveals whether the market's valuation has expanded or contracted—and whether that change is justified by fundamentals.

UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC (UPS) Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio historical trend analysis. Quarterly chart showing how the market has valued the company's earnings over time.

PE Ratio Trend

Price-to-Earnings Ratio